Don’t write the Liberals off yet

It has already been conjectured many times that the federal Liberals are finished, primarily because of the historic shellacking they received Monday night. In addition, Harper’s former colleague, Gerry Nicholls, claims that Harper has a long-term plan to accomplishing just that goal:

“Indeed, his desire to eliminate the Liberals is something he and I discussed way back in the days when we worked together at the National Citizens Coalition. His theory, as explained to me, was that conservatism would be better served in this country if Canada had a two-party system, one that pitted right against left, free enterprise against socialism, Conservatives against New Democrats.

He believed that, in such a polarized political environment, a conservative-oriented party would have a huge advantage over its left-wing rival. When given a clear choice, voters will usually pick conservatism over socialism.”

Well it certainly sounds like something Harper would say. Furthermore, I agree with it. Except that – unfortunately - I am sceptical about whether the federal Liberals are going to cooperate and stay dead. 

For starters, there is the example set by the Progressive Conservatives in 1993. Reduced to 2 seats, bankrupt and in complete disarray, they had nothing but spite and a 125 year history to fall back upon. But history proved that that can be enough, even if Joe Clarke is your leader and his right-hand man is David Orchard - a wild-eyed crank. Perhaps spite and history are enough to keep the Libs going for a decade or so until they get back on their feet again.

And then there is the state of the NDP, whose predicament is much more perilous than their sensational victory would suggest. Lorne Gunther sizes up Taliban Jack’s situation accurately (here and here):

“Lurking just beneath the surface of his party’s 103-seat win on Monday are two enormous problems: His caucus is made up mostly of neophyte MPs, many of whom may not even want to be MPs. And as the official voice of Quebec discontent, he runs the risk of seeing his newfound popularity in that province evaporate overnight if he does not do an acceptable job of playing the victim card.”

“Outside Quebec, there was no NDP surge. Yes, the NDP gained 65 seats Monday night over their 2008 total, but 57 of those gains were in one province — Quebec.”

“And I hate to rain on Jack Layton and Co.’s parade, but if they do not now spend most of their time giving voice to Quebec’s demands, they could easily see most of their Quebec gains wiped out at the next election.”

So how well do you think this pack of neophytes will do against Harper’s well oiled machine?

 

Comments

[Paul]

The Progressive Conservative Party did not stage a comeback. They have virtually disappeared on the national scene.
We now have a Conservative Party, there is a huge difference.
Liberals are not equipped to do the necessary work required to survive.
Stick a fork in them, they are done.

[John T]

Much as I take delight in
the Liberals crushing and well-deserved defeat, I too hope that they don't disappear, but actually rebuild and present a credible alternative again. Eventually, the Conservatives will run out of steam and Canadians will vote them out of power. (Hopefully, Harper will get yet another majority term in office.) And for for all their faults, I would much rather have the Liberals in power than the NDP. The Liberals sound very leftish in campaign mode, but generally govern from the moderate center. The thought of the left-wing NDP in power scares me, and their first three days in opposition have done nothing to calm my fears. So yes, we still need the Liberals around.

[fernstalbert]

Sorry but I don't think Quebec is going to rush back into the arms of the Liberal Party. They will have to organize and be credible in the ROC first. I predict the NDP will implode and the Official Opposition will change before the end of the first parliamentary session. Cheers.

[WiseGuy]

Have no fear, the left wing split will return.

The NDP is very likely to disappoint the Quebec voters, especially since some of them can't even speak french. Others only entered as a joke.

I doubt that they will win back anywhere near the seat count they got in Quebec in the next election.

[bmatkin]

The Liberal party is gone. I was watching a Liberal winner proudly announce she was a progressive. The NDP are progressives. Gone is any differentiation.
Quebec made an historic blunder, they live not by being socialist or lefties but by the cash flow of a progressive welfare state. They always guess right and send winning MPs to Ottawa to make sure they get their "have not" share.
This time they figured there would be a minority, then a coalition and they would be the biggest player by backing Jack. Whoops. Wrong. They made a game changing mistake they are unlikely to repeat. The next election come hell or high water there will be a large conservative vote in Quebec.