It is easy for conservatives to dismiss Ron Paul. He holds a number of positions that are well outside of the conservative mainstream: isolationism, drug legalization, and a general anti-government stance that is too pure to be sellable to the electorate at large. So therefore the Republican nabobs think: he’s a nut, his people are mindless zombies, he’s got a low glass ceiling in the primaries, let’s forget about him. Big mistake!
As Dick Morris points out in this lunch-time video, the Reagan coalition is a three-legged stool: national security hawks, social conservatives and fiscal conservatives/libertarians; each faction is important because you need all three to achieve a majority. Right now, Ron Paul is the only Presidential candidate who actively courts the last leg of the stool: the libertarians. In the past 15 years, this group has been largely taken for granted by GOP Presidential candidates: by Bob Dole, by George W Bush, by John McCain and potentially now by Mitt Romney.
That so many Republican voters rally behind somebody who believes America was responsible for 9/11, and whose past views have bordered on the anti-Semitic conspiracy kook fringe, shows how this faction of the electorate is sick and tired of being taken for granted and is eager to find somebody – anybody - to represent them.
Ron Paul’s strong second place in the Republican race is a wake up call for the Republicans. If the GOP ignores the libertarian wing much longer it will face of a third party challenger from the right, if not from Paul then from somebody else.
To beat Obama in 2012, the Republicans must take a page from former Australian Prime Minister John Howard’s fourth electoral triumph in 2004. His National/Liberal coalition gained substantially in the popular vote even though the popular vote of his Labour Party rivals did not decline much. Where did the votes come from, if not from Labour? From the minor single-issue conservative parties. He adopted enough of their issues (like immigration restrictionism), that those who had drifted away from the Liberal Party over the years came back home. Had he continued to ignore these voters, saying in effect “where can they go?” those third parties would have continued to grow at Howard’s expense.
To win, Romney or whoever beats Romney for the nomination must provide the voters with enough libertarian policies so that the small-government people feel welcome again in the Republican Party.
Paul looked like an idiot during last night's debate.
His numbers are driven mostly by left-leaning independent. They should not be ignored, but neither should they be curried too.
Posted by: Paul | January 17, 2012 at 10:16 AM
most of Paul's support comes from cross-over Democrats who would not vote for him against Obama in any case.
There is always the attempt by the left to engineer a third party or siphon off votes.
This action even works at times.
Paul has a few rabid supporters in blue states, and should not be considered seriously.
Posted by: bmatkin | January 18, 2012 at 01:19 AM