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January 07, 2016

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monkey

Certainly the risk of splitting is always an issue not just for Conservatives but any side. However, I think actually the Reform Party might have done more damage to the Conservative movement. Canadians tend to be fairly moderate and parties that come across as too ideological have limited appeal outside their base. If anything the next Tory leader needs to be a bit more moderate if they want to win. While the US is more conservative and more polarized than Canada, the biggest difficulty the GOP has is changing demographics. It used to be getting 60% of the non-Hispanic white vote meant a landslide (Bush 88) whereas now that is no longer enough to win (Romney 12) and in fact in another two elections 2/3 of the non-Hispanic white vote won't be sufficient unless the GOP can do better amongst minorities. They don't need to win the minority vote, they just need to not get beaten as badly so in the long-run embracing Trump could hurt them here. And some minority groups they can win amongst. Bush in 04 got 44% of the Latino vote while Reagan won the Asian vote both times and Bush in 2000 won the Arab vote so it is doable but certainly not the way Trump is acting.

WiseGuy

Monkey, In what universe did the Reform party do damage to the conservative movement? Oh...I see. You said the "Conservative movement". I presume that refers to the "Progressive Conservative" movement. That they certainly did.

The Reform Party became the Conservative Party and just finished off nearly a decade of rule. That's the sort of damage any movement would be pretty good with.

james

I don't think we need a moderate at all. What we need is a campaign with some policy. The last one had none and that's why we lost.

Autoguy

Spoken like a mouthpiece of the left.
First off, if your position on Canadians is correct, then Harper would never have come to power, let alone hold it for so long. The "be more like the liberals" mantra has no data to support it. Talk plain, do what you promise on the campaign trail. That was Harper's mantra and it worked. We will need more of that to defeat Trudeau. As for the demographic thing, you're ignoring lots of demographic data that doesn't match your model - as voters age they tend to vote Repub. - as you get to second and third gen immigrants the vote shifts to match the "white" vote. DON'T pander to any special interests and you will have they edge in my opinion. If the Repubs did as you say then they would be simply a second Dem party, and they would dissappear.

monkey

Wise Guy - You prove my point that it was a Reform takeover and I can assure you that is why many traditional PC voters didn't vote for them. It is a major reason why the Tories were shut out of Atlantic Canada and did poorly in urban Canada. If the Reform Party was so popular, why did they choose the name Conservative? I suggests it was done as the knew the Reform Party was toxic amongst the 80% who didn't vote for them. Yes the Conservatives were in power for a decade but they were constrained under a minority government and once they got a majority were tossed. I am centre-right and former PCs and don't want Justin Trudeau to win in 2019, but after seeing how the PCs continuously lose in Ontario despite Liberal woes, I realize most Canadians aren't right wing and if you are too far to the right you want win here in Canada.

james - Yes the Tories need to moderate. Right now progressives are in charge in 8 out of 10 provinces and in the last Ontario, Alberta, and federal election, the party that ran on the most left wing platform won suggesting most Canadians at the moment are on the left. That doesn't mean the Tories should be left wing, but they should move back to where they were under Mulroney and similar to where Brad Wall is right now. While its true lack of policy didn't help the campaign, if you look at the riding by riding results, it is clear a lot voted strategically which suggests Canadians wanted Harper gone. I don't like the fact Canada is as left wing as it is, but it will take time to move it back to the centre and eventually the right. The elections in the past couple years would have been much different if most Canadians were on the right.

autoguy - I am not saying be like the Liberals, I am saying move closer to the centre which would mean something in between where Harper was and Trudeau is which is a pretty big gaping hole so lots of room. The reality is the right have to realize they won't get what they want, so the idea is to be as far to the right as the electorate will tolerate which is no very right wing at all. A plain message helps to a point, but the reality is most Canadians want more government programs. In many way Canadians are like a 25 year old still living at home, they want stuff and others to pay for it and until this is successfully challenged (which will take time) running a conservative platform won't work. As for the GOP, the US is a lot more conservative than Canada so you can run on policies that won't fly here, but still if the GOP wants to win in the long-term they cannot spend time insulting minorities like Trump does as they will need to win those third generation minorities. As for Canada, most whites unlike in the US are left leaning.

Autoguy

Wow. The last Conservative premier of Ontario was as conservative as they get (overall) and the shills that took over the Ontario PC's were centreists that you support - and they are the ones that lost against the horrifically vulnerable Liberals. Your logic just doesn't hold up AT ALL. Your thoughts are the same as the establishment political classes in the US and those types are getting tossed.

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