Canadian Cincinnatus

With Obama’s victory, I fear for my homeland Estonia

Having an Estonian background, I sincerely worry at Obama’s foreign policy naiveté.

While I may be wrong (and sincerely hope I am), Obama has already hinted with the Georgia crisis that he is one of those dewy-eyed, peace-at-any-price types who make the perfect foil for an unprincipled predator like Vladimir Putin. When Putin tested the West with the invasion of Georgia on the opening day of the Beijing Olympics, Barack Obama’s first response was to talk about the need for both sides to get together to settle their misunderstandings. What a fool!

To the participants in this event, there were no misunderstandings. Russia wanted to get as much as it could from Georgia and Georgia wanted to keep as much as it could. The issue could not be more crystal clear to them. On a larger scale, Russia is testing the West to see what it can get away with. Putin has made perfectly clear his desire to restore the Russian Imperium. The only person who failed to understand what was going on was Barack Obama.

It was only when John McCain came to the spirited and uncompromising defence of Georgia that Obama was shamed into standing up for Georgia. In this crisis, Barack Obama’s conduct reminded me of nobody more than Neville Chamberlain and Édouard Daladier in the Munich Crisis, who in their zeal to appease Hitler at the Munich Conference and so avoid war, treated the Czechoslovakian Prime Minster as almost more of a troublemaker than the Fuhrer. The same process of vilifying the victim (which Barack started out participating in) could be seen operating in the Georgia crisis.

Barack Obama clearly believes in the moral-equivalence theory, that is, that the use of violence is deplorable no matter who does it. In other words, his morality does not distinguish between the violence perpetrated by a victim defending himself and the violence of an aggressor attacking the victim. The only people who could believe something this silly are those who have grown up in such luxury that they have never been mugged by reality. There are many such people in North America and Western Europe. The conditions in places like Hawaii have been so good for so long that many people who grew up there simply cannot imagine anything bad happening to themselves.

The people of Eastern Europe have never had this luxury.

According to this  news item, the Soviet Union, er, I mean the Russian Federation, didn’t wait too long after Obama’s victory to act.

Backgrounder to the Russian Invasion of Georgia

What transpired is complicated. It is also a story of subterfuge by Russia. To properly understand the events, we need to go back to the spring of 1918.

THE SETTING

Georgia was briefly free, following its declaration of independence from Russia on May 26, 1918. On May 7, 1920 Soviet Russia signed a Peace Treaty with the young democratic republic of Georgia – The Treaty of Moscow (1920) – which explicitly recognized its sovereignity and promised to forego any and all territorial ambitions. In short, Russia promised to respect Georgia's territorial integrity forever. It should be noted that Georgia’s independence was also recognised by the international community of the time.

Within months, Russia started to foment anti-governmental riots in various regions of the country, especially among ethnic minorities such as the Abkhazians and Ossetians. They also provoked numerous border incidents along the frontier of the Azerbaijan SSR.

Less than a year after signing this treaty, the Russian Army invaded Georgia on the pretext of "saving minority peoples (Abkhazians & Ossetians) and the peasants.” This was in February 1921 and Georgia was destined to remain under Russian rule for the following 70 years.

Come 1991, the Soviet Union collapsed and Georgia quickly declared independence. International recognition and acceptance followed for this easternmost of the world’s Christian nations. Internationally Georgia’s historic territory was recognized as including the regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

Putin’s Russia attempted to regain control by destabilizing Georgia (as well as the whole Caucasus). The 1920’s scenario described above was once again being knowingly played out: foment separatism among Abkhazians and Ossetians in Georgia, provoke crises, when the time is ripe and the situation right, invade, conquer, and annex.

The ethnic composition of Abkhazia in 1989 was about 46% (240,000) Georgian, 18% (93,000) Abkhazian, 15% (77,000) Armenian, 14% (75,000) Russian and the rest a hodgepodge, which included Estonians.

During the Russian fomented, funded and otherwise aided civil war, the minority Abkhazians drove out all other ethnicities except the Russians. They accomplished this via massive massacres and terror. This was ethnic cleansing. Abkhazia is today a depopulated region.

South Ossetia population was about 70,000 a year or two ago after having undergone a similar Russian sponsored and abetted ethnic cleansing. Most Canadian towns have larger populations than this region.

Significantly, the Russians decided to give Russian citizenship to the remaining local population.

THE TRAP

A number of months ago, the Russians moved a large number of troops and tanks just outside of Georgia’s borders. Close to 1,000 tanks were deployed just outside of South Ossetia. (Note that in 2007, Russia also introduced large numbers of tanks and troops, including the crack 76th Airborne Brigade, near the borders of Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania.)

Thereafter, a number of border incidents occurred with South Ossetian “Rebels” shelling Georgian villages near the border. This harassment steadily increased until in early August the casualties in Georgia became significant and Georgia decided to militarily deal with the “rebels”... they crossed the Ossetian border.

The Russians immediately attacked Georgia with the full might of their amassed troops under the pretext of offering protection to the (recently created) Russian citizens living there.

This was Russia's plan and that is how the Georgians fell into the trap.

Tom M

The West is being tested by Putin

Anybody who thinks what is happening right now in Georgia has anything to do with South Ossetia can’t see the forest through the trees.

What Vladimir Putin – probably the most skilled Machiavellian head of state today – is engaged in is a classic probing strategy. First skirmish at the periphery. See how the opponent responds. If they show signs of weakness, then probe some more, this time closer to the vital center. Take notes. Adjust your strategy while engaging in diplomatic delaying tactics.

Hitler used these same tactics before World War II. First the Rhineland. After that went swimmingly, then Austria. After that the Sudetenland to be followed shortly by the Czech Republic.

Putin is doing that today. First Estonia, last year – over the Bronze Soldier statue. Why else would the Kremlin care about an obscure statue in a foreign country that, until a couple of years ago, was seldom visited? Today, Georgia. Tomorrow? – indications are that they are planning on strong-arming the Ukraine.

Dick Morris thinks that this will all backfire on Putin. God, I hope so.

The Georgian invasion is all Russia’s fault

The West’s Russian appeasers are working overtime as can be seen here, here, here, here and here. Their new line is that the invasion is Georgia’s fault because they provoked the Russians by crossing over the border into South Ossetia and attacking the Ossetian rebels. Russia is merely responding to Georgia’s threat and, in any event, Georgia should have known better than to attack an enemy so much bigger than it. They were no doubt encouraged into doing this, so goes the thinking, by the fact that the West in general, and the US in particular, encouraged Georgia too much by, among other things, encouraging Georgia to apply to NATO (and the EU). Therefore, it is America’s fault. Everybody’s fault, it seems, except the Russian’s, at least according to the appeasers.

That this line of thinking is rubbish can be demonstrated by examining these facts:

First, South Ossetia is within the internationally recognized borders of Georgia. If Georgia chooses to attack a separatist army encamped within its borders is none of Russia’s business. Name a country on this planet that would tolerate a separatist army within its borders. I think it is fairly safe to say that Russia wouldn’t.

Of course, it can be argued that Russia’s intervention was because of a moral obligation on their part to assist the Ossetians against Georgian excess and cruelty. Perhaps there is something to this. Of course, we have no way of knowing for sure at this point because the only people asserting this are the Russians and they have a long history of justifying their own excesses on the thinnest of pretexts.

But for the sake of argument, lets assume this to be true. Wouldn’t the best thing Russia could do to help the Ossetians is to assist the Ossetians in founding a unified Ossetian Republic? One composed on not just the 60,000 people in South Ossetia but also the 445,000 Ossetians in North Ossetia. They are uniquely well positioned to pursue this course of action given that North Ossetia exists within the borders of the Russian Federation. Personally, I’m not holding my breath waiting for this will happen.

Third, any military invasion of this size would require at minimum of a month of preparation before it could be launched. Units had to be repositioned, stockpiles of supplies and ammunition brought well forward, plans made and rehearsed, etc. This means that if this invasion really were a counter-attack, there would have been a delay of a month between Georgia’s move and Russia’s. It is simply physically impossible for Russia to counter-attack on the same day. That, coupled with the suspicious timing of the event (the same day as the opening ceremonies of the Beijing Olympics), leads one to the inescapable conclusion that the invasion was deliberate and that Georgia was only guilty of unwittingly providing Putin a pretext for doing so.

Demand that Putin be fired!

In calling a cease-fire, the Russians made a number of demands. One was that the Georgian President, Mikhail Saakashvili, be fired. Imagine the chutzpah? You invade a country and then, as a concession to stop invading and bombing it, you demand that its democratically elected leader be removed from office.

It would do this outrageous demand injustice to receive it with seriousness. It as if a thief came to your house, robbed you blind and then, when caught in the act, said that it is your fault because your prosperity tempted him so that the only right course of action is for you to pay for his rehabilitation. If you were to seriously negotiate from that basis you would only be validating his crimes.

The only antidote to this tactic is to counter it with an equally outrageous demand of our own: Vladimir Putin must be fired!

God knows, there would be ample justification for it. The Alexander Litvinenko affair should be enough to send him to the gas chamber, not to mention his barbaric war of conquest against the Chechens (or his possible role in the Moscow apartment-house bombings).

Of course, Putin will not lose his job because such a demand is presented, but it would put the Kremlin on notice that outrageous demands on their part will no longer be tolerated.

Russia attacks Georgia

Read about it here and here.

While the world was being distracted by the lavish opening ceremonies of the Beijing Olympics, Russia invaded the breakaway Georgian province of South Ossetia with tanks. Simultaneously they launched air attacks against other parts of Georgia. Georgia claims to have shot down six Russian fighter-bombers. The Russians claim that they were only reacting to Georgian military incursions into that region.

To put things in perspective, South Ossetia has been a de-facto independent republic since 1992, after a war between South Ossetian separatists and the Georgian government ended inconclusively and resulted in a cease-fire and truce. However, the UN, EU, OSCE and NATO do not recognize South Ossetian independence, recognizing, rather, that South Ossetia is an integral part of Georgia. Since that time, a peacekeeping force of sorts - made up of Ossetians, the Russian Army and the Georgian Army - has governed South Ossetia. In 2006, South Ossetia held a referendum where they declared themselves independent of Georgia. Interestingly enough, several years ago Russia fast-tracked South Ossetians who wanted to get Russian passports. In other words, create as many Russian citizens as possible in South Ossetia so that, later on, you can say that you are invading the country in order to protect them.

Regardless of the internal politics of South Ossetia, it is obvious that Russia intends to use South Ossetia the way Germany used the Sudetenland. In other words, in the guise of ‘helping out’ the Ossetians against the bad Georgians, they incrementally regain control of some former Soviet territory. And if it works out well, then look for Russia to come to the aid of other ‘oppressed’ minority group in other former Soviet countries.

Fortunately, this time the European countries do not appear to be as gullible as they were in 1936. For instance, Sweden’s foreign minister, Carl Bilt, has already compared Russia’s action to that of the Third Reich. Needless to say, countries that used to be part of the Soviet imperium are even more acutely sensitive to the threat that the Russian action poses, and for this reason, Poland and the three Baltic states issued a joint statement condemning Russia’s action and urging the EU and NATO to take serious action to assist Georgia and combat Russia’s revisionist history. As if to complete the analogy, Washington Post correspondent Anne Applebaum, has been channeling Neville Chamberlain. In the classic manner of past appeasers she blames the weaker party for starting this war. In the same manner that Anne Applebaum blames Georgia, many world leaders blamed Czechoslovakia for their intransigence against the reasonable demands of Adolph Hitler, who said he only wanted guarantees for the Sudetenland Germans. Of course, the appeasers back then didn’t really believe what they were saying back then – any more than Anne Applebaum likely does today, but they convinced themselves enough to say things like this because they are cowards. It is easier to side with the stronger party against the weaker. Reading the history of the period makes for depressing reading. There were a lot of Anne Applebaums back then, and in powerful positions.

Of course, if the Russians were really interested in helping out Ossetians, they would free North Ossetia North Ossetia from the Russian Federation. There are 445,000 Ossetians living in North Ossetia. There are only 65,200 Ossetians living South Ossetia. Given that the Ossetians are a separate people who are as distinct from Russians as they are from Georgians, it would make sense for there to be one Ossetian Republic, united from both halves, the Georgian half and the Russian half. I am sure that the prospect of a buffer state between themselves and Russia would do wonders to convince Georgia to come to terms with loosing South Ossetia. Long live the Ossetian Republic!

Another interesting fact is that the Soviet Union signed the Treaty of Moscow with Georgia in 1920, in the brief period when Georgia was then free. Among other things the Treaty says: “Article I: Proceeding from the right, proclaimed by the RSFSR, of all peoples to free self-determination up to and including separation from the State of which they constitute a part, Russia unreservedly recognizes the independence and sovereignty of the Georgian State and voluntarily renounces all the sovereign rights which had appertained to Russia with regard to the People and Territory of Georgia. Article II: Proceeding from the principles proclaimed in Article I above of the present Treaty, Russia undertakes to refrain from any kind of interference in the affairs of Georgia.” Nine months later, the Soviets invaded Georgia and took it over. Is history repeating itself now?

In the mean time, there are many reasons why the West should support Georgia. First of all, Georgia is a pro-West democracy that is currently building a free-market economy. They are actively trying to get into both NATO and the EU. The current President of Georgia, Mikhail Saakashvili, is very pro-west. In other words, a new western democracy is blooming. It is in the interest of all established western democracies to ensure that this nation survives. There are far too many dismal authoritarian dictatorships around – including – increasingly - Putin’s Russia.

For the United States, they have a unique moral obligation to Georgia. Georgia has been a loyal ally of the United States in the War on Terror. They currently have 2,000 soldiers stationed in Iraq. They are not just fair-weather coalition members. They are walking the talk, and as a result, they should be helped.

And third - and most importantly - if Russia gets away with its heavy-handed actions in South Ossetia, a deadly precedent will be established that can be used by the Russian federation to threaten any number of its neighbours. Russia has purposely left many ethnic Russian behind in its former republics and you can bet that Vladimir Putin will be more than willing to play the Sudetenland card again to increase Russian power further.