Canadian Cincinnatus

The worst possible result at London convention

If John Tory had got 55% of the vote, or 80% of the vote the matter of his leadership would be cut and dry. But what happened was that the convention took a weak leader and wounded him further.

Of course, he made matters worse for himself by publiclly dithering. If he had immediately come out, pumped his fist in the air and thanked the delegates for supporting him, he would have come out looking like a winner. The picture in Monday's newspapers would have been of Tory pumping his fist in the air in truimph. In politics perception sometimes trumps reality. This is something that the leader of a major political party should know.

Barack Obama - the late baby boomer

As somebody born in the same year as Barack Obama - 1961, I can sympathize with some of the comments that Steve Sailer has made in his posting, The Last Yuppie.

Jason Cherniak tries to create rift in the Estonian-Canadian community that doesn't exist

Apparently, somebody has posted anti-Estonian web messages on the internet using a Parliament of Canada web site. And Liberal blogger Jason Cherniak is hot on the heels of whomever it is. And his answer is - wait for it - a Conservative. Whodathunkit!

He tries to convince his readers that, as a result, there has developed a split between the Estonian-Canadian community and Peter van Loan, an Estonian Canadian who is a prominent Conservative Party Minister. As somebody who attended - two days ago - the 90th anniversary of Estonian's independence - along with Peter van Loan and Margus Kolga, I can say there has been no such split. This is Liberal propaganda.

While Liberal MP Byron Wilfert received a medal from the Estonian Central Council of Canada at that same event, Peter van Loan received a larger share of the applause from the audience at hand.

While I sincerely tip my hat to Margus Kolga for his fabulous documentary film, Gulag 113 (which I heartily recommend to anybody), this attempt to create a rift between the Conservative Party of Canada and the Estonian Canadian community is entirely too much.

Wildly differing polls in Canada federal politics

As Steve Janke of the Angry in the Great White North blog points out, the results of various public opinion polls in federal Canadian politics vary wildly. The question comes up, is the opinion of Canadians varying as erratically as the polls would suggest?

Answer: of course not.

The real answer is that each of the polls is inaccurate in its own way, depending on its own methodology. While we always hear the caveat - that the polls are accurate 19 times out of 20, X percent of the time - we don't hear is that the real answer: that each poll result is true within its stated accuracy only if one assumes that its random sample is unrepresentative in the same way as it was the last time around.

In other words, which poll is correct? Answer: I haven't the foggiest, and I don't know who does.

But the one thing you can glean from the numerous polls: the results - per poll comany - is vey stable. This makes sense. Not much has happened in Canadian federal politics. Each poll company's results continue to be as unrepresentative as it always has been. The important question to keep in mind when interpreting the polls is: how are a specific poll company's numbers doing?

Which company's poll results are the most accurate? I haven't a clue. There is only one way to find out - a general election.

The Art of War, Harper Style

Good article on Prime Minsiter Harper's parliamentary tactics.

here

Of good and bad tactics in Afghanistan

Rosie DiManno in the Toronto Star, of all places, has a great article critical of Stephane Dion's proposals on Afghanistan, and what these proposals mean on the ground for our troops. Who whould have though you would have heard such a fine dissertation on military tactics in such a liberal paper.

(via Mike Downtown)

Vote yes for a John Tory Leadership Review

This weekend, the Provincial progressive Conservative Convention is being held in London, Ontario. The most important question before the delegates is whether to hold a leadership review of John Tory. Given the dismal showing the Conservatives had in the last provincial election (essentially equaling Ernie Eves’ dismal showing in 2003) plus the fact that this election was ours to lose (Dalton McGuinty had nothing going for him going into that election), I feel the question has only one answer.

However, given that John Tory failed to even win his own seat, the question should have been moot. Or at least that was what I thought when I was watching the results come in on election night. I figured, well at least Tory’s end will be quick and decisive. The party can begin the rebuilding process immediately with a leadership race without any animosity. Of course, John Tory will do the only sensible thing and resign. Unfortunately he didn’t do the sensible thing.

Thanks to one man’s intransigence, party now has an unavoidable squabble on our hands. It will be bad but it should be remembered that the sooner it begins the sooner it ends and the new leader can begin the rebuilding process. It is important to realize that not having a leadership review will not prevent a civil war. It will merely delay and protract it. Only John Tory’s resignation can prevent it.

All of this reflects badly on John Tory. It is the mark of an unskilled leader who, when faced with an unpleasant situation, will simply dig in his heels and cling to the status quo. A real leader realizes that bad circumstances need changing, and will also realize that he only has a very finite time in which to affect these changes. However, if a leader does not know what else to do, he simply chooses the default position – obstinacy.

John Tory should realize that there is no way for him not to be fatally weakened when he has fought such a bad election. The only other way out of it (besides resignation) is for him to do something so dramatic that it puts his failure behind him. In the Middle Ages, there was something called a trial by fire. That is, a 40’ long corridor made of wood was constructed that was set on fire. If you made it through, it was a sign that God was on your side. If you didn’t, well God wasn’t on your side. There were people back then who volunteered for that!

John Tory has to go through the modern equivalent of a trial by fire, if he is ever to be taken seriously as a leader again. A mea culpa isn’t enough. He has to prove himself in order to regain our trust. There is no other way, regardless of which way this weekend’s vote goes.

One strategy, suggested by a friend, was for Tory to have announced a leadership review himself immediately after the election. By preempting his critics, he would be free to pick the date - say 12 months into the future. This 12 months would be used by him to prove that he still has the right stuff.

How could he go about proving himself? By showing himself to be an effective opposition leader. For instance, one tailor-made issue for him was recently in the news – the Toronto School Board’s decision to open an all-black school. He should say, Mr. McGuinty, you just won the election based on one issue – faith-based schools. You rallied the voters behind the idea of a single public school system and won. I learned my lesson. I have heard the voters. Why are you ignoring the voters who elected you? Mr. McGuinty, do the right thing and close that school. And by the way, while we are at it, lets talk about the separate Catholic School system. Put the Liberals on the defensive and start scoring points. The glad-handing of party members can be left to later.

And of course, John Tory should then also realize that in 12 months, if the membership isn’t impressed, the gig really is up.

A must see video detailing Barack Obama's legislative accomplishments

here

heh. heh. heh.

(via Instapundit)

Jim Flaherty on Dalton McGuinty

here

McCain’s false friends

I want to talk about Rush Limbaugh’s opening monologue today because he made a very important point that far too few conservative politicians understand. The subject of his talk was the New York Times story today about McCain’s alleged improper connections with some lobbyist. Of course, the timing of the story is suspicious in the extreme. Before he won the nomination, McCain was endorsed by the Times as the Republican candidate, while the day after he clinches the nomination, the Times breaks this story on McCain that they presumably must have been sitting on for a while.

Rush’s point was that the real story – behind the story – is that, if you are a conservative, you don’t have any real friends in the media. McCain, until today did not understand this (but hopefully today he has learned his lesson). While McCain no doubt enjoyed basking in the warm media light while he was the ‘maverick’ bucking the conservative establishment, at the same time, his media “friends” like Jon Stewart were leading him on. They were only interested in rewarding Republican dissent. Once he became the standard bearer of the Republican party (and therefore, by definition, part of the Republican establishment) they dumped him like a hot potato. When presented with a choice between McCain and Obama (or even Hillary), there is no choice. But if McCain learns his lesson, this will all be for the good. If not, he is toast. As Rush said, “who the media bulds up, the media can destroy.”

McCain now has his work cut out for him. He has to make amends with the conservative media he had been dissing, because – as he is now discovering – they are the only ones who might stand beside him on election day. And he has to give up hope of every basking in media glow again.

In Canada, the same thing happened when Ernie Eves was seeking the leadership of the Ontario Progressive Conservative Party. Because he was opposed by the right-wing fireplug, Jim Flaherty, the Toronto Star endorsed him. But what good did that endorsement do for hapless Ernie in the provincial election that followed? – Did the Star endorse Ernie over Liberal Dalton McGuinty? Are you kidding.

One Canadian politician who has learned this lesson is Prime Minister Steve Harper. After his first election – which he lost, he has consistently treated the mainstream media with the contempt that they deserve. And as a result, he has won their respect. Whenever they offer him advice, he ignores it. Every time he does, he wins.

If you are a conservative in Canada, you have to be a fool to listen to the Globe and Mail editorial board.

Don’t take advice from the enemy!