By Charles Krauthammer.
I have often felt the same way about nuclear non-proliferation; that is, that it has been a colossal mistake (though hidden by the feel-good vibes it emanates). It has the same effect that gun control has on citizens, it disarms the good guys while having little effect on the bad guys’ activities.
Nuclear non-proliferation has not stopped North Korea, Pakistan or Iran in any way. It has, however, left Taiwan, South Korea, Japan and Eastern Europe at the tender mercies of its neighbours.
There is no doubt in my mind that the only reason China has allowed North Korea to be what it is, and to have nukes, is so that it can be its cats-paw against the United States. The simplest solution for the Americans is to tacitly and quietly allow Taiwan, South Korea and Japan to acquire nuclear weapons. The score then would be three cats-paws to one. As a deterrent to Chinese aggression, these weapons would be more effective. Faced with an existential question, there is little doubt these countries would retaliate appropriately if attacked. However, as the situation presently exists where these countries are under the US nuclear umbrella, one never knows. China could easily calculate that the Americans would not risk a nuclear attack on itself by defending these small countries on the other side of the Pacific.
And if one or more Eastern European countries were to get nukes, Russia’s imperial expansion would be checkmated forever.
The counterargument, that increased nuclear proliferation would destabilize the world even more, is hogwash. We have already achieved the worst-case scenario proliferation-wise – the aggressive bad guys are armed, and the good guys disarmed. Even the smallest step away from this non-proliferation nonsense would cause the world to incremental stabilize.