In the recent provincial election, Ontario Progressive Conservative leader Tim Hudak touted his ‘million jobs’ plan. While the plan to produce those million jobs included many proven common sense measures like lower corporate taxes, less regulation, lower energy prices and getting rid of the recently created College of Trade, the opposition parties derided his plan for its supposed ‘bad math’ and trotted out a bunch of Keynesian economists to prove it.
The problem with the plan was not in the details. They were quite solid. The problem is that by saying you will create a million jobs, the onus is now on you to prove your numbers. As the challenger, you should not put yourself into this position, particularly when you are campaigning against a feckless, incompetent and corrupt government with a horrible economic track record. The onus should be on them to prove their record.
That’s why the correct political strategy would have centered over some actual job numbers, such as, for instance, the 300,000 manufacturing jobs that Ontario lost since 2003. Instead of touting a million new jobs, ask Wynne to defend the indefensible Liberal record of destroying jobs. Then, you roll out the exact same policy proscriptions contained in the million jobs plan. Of course, the Keynesians would have still been trotted out, but if Hudak had been properly prepared, he would have foreseen that and had free-market economists lined up counter them.
With the academics and policy wonks duking it out on increasingly incomprehensible technical points, Hudak’s coup de grace would have been this retort:
Ms. Wynne, what is your plan? In truth you have none, because if you had, you would have implemented it by now. All you can do is nitpick the ideas of others and naysay people who want to get those 300,000 neglected workers working again. If you can’t do anything constructive, get out of the way. Get out of the way Madam Premier so that hard working Ontarians can get back to work!
I point this out not to refight a war that has already been lost, but to point out that the reason Hudak lost was not with his policies. They were quite good, and he was admirably honest and straightforward about them. Hudak’s problem - and the reason he lost - is because he was unable to connect with the Low Information Voter, i.e. with the undecided.
As I have tirelessly pointed out on these pages, this segment of the body politic cannot be won over with policies, either conservative or socialist. They don’t care about issues. Booring. Right-wing, left-wing, chicken wing. They make their decisions using an entirely different logic than used by politically active people, which is why we (the politically active) so often misread them. They don’t think like us. They need to be persuaded on more emotional terms.
Hudak’s deficiencies were entirely in the categories of political packaging and strategy. A leader with the same policy platform, but with the fingerspitzengefuhl of a natural politician, like say Rob Ford (minus the addictions), would have walked away with this election - leaving the Ontario Liberal Party in smoking ruins.
We simply cannot underestimate the influence of those anti-Hudak ads run by the various public sector unions. Those ads were misleading and often told outright lies about Hudak's plans, and they were aimed directly at the low information voter. Look, if someone stands up and tells everyone what a delightful fellow I am, followed by six who swear that I'm a rotten scoundrel, I don't have a chance. And that's what the LIV's saw every night as they watched the hockey game. Even Mother Teresa couldn't beat those odds. Or Hillary Clinton.
Posted by: John T | June 18, 2014 at 10:23 AM
Excellent point John!
The question now is, how can we they have used political ju-litsu to counter the onslaught that everybody knew was coming.
How should they have done that? I think my guest blogger Mike Downtown called it:
http://canadiancincinnatus.typepad.com/my_weblog/2014/06/its-time-for-attack-adds-on-tim-hudaks-real-opponents-the-unions.html
Posted by: Cincinnatus | June 18, 2014 at 07:43 PM