John Schindler, over at the XX Committee blog, has the most illuminating article about the current war in the Ukraine I have yet read.
While he has no illusions about the straits that the Ukrainians find themselves in, he also has no illusions about Vladimir Putin, whom he correctly notes is not as strong as he seems. He quotes one of the last remaining independent journalists in Russia, who says:
“Time, that trickiest of strategic concerns, is not on Putin’s side any longer, as Felgenhauer observes accurately, between weather and the Russian military’s conscript cycle:
“There is not much time left. Fall is approaching. The short hours of daylight and low clouds will complicate the matters for the air force. It will have difficulty supporting ground troops — pilots in Su-25 ground-attack planes need to see the targets on the ground. In addition, starting 1 October, it is necessary to conduct a new draft and begin the demobilization of those conscripts who are stationed on the border as part of the artillery battalion groups. It is specifically for these reasons that the question must be resolved now.”
We will know in a few days, then, if Putin has achieved his relatively limited military aims in eastern Ukraine. If he does not manage a quick win, there is every reason to think Ukraine and Russia will become embroiled in a protracted war for which neither Moscow nor Kyiv is ready.”
As I have been saying all along, Putin’s Achilles heel is time. The longer his military operations take, the more unpopular he will get at home. The anti-Putin resistance in the 2012 Presidential election really spooked him, and this is why he is cultivating an us-against-them mentality in Russia. Maybe next time, ballot-box stuffing and a 24/7 non-stop orgy of pro-Putin propaganda on every TV station in Russia won’t be enough.
Schindler’s remedy is spot on:
‘Sanctions will have no short-term impact on Russian behavior at this point. Vaunted Western “soft power” has been run over by Russian tanks. The decision for war has been made in Moscow, and it will be prosecuted until Putin achieves his objectives or the cost — rising numbers of Russian dead — becomes politically prohibitive. Putin knows that the Russian public, heady after the nearly bloodless conquest of Crimea, has no stomach for a costly war of choice with Ukraine, their “Slavic brothers.”’
As I have said, the worst case scenario for Putin is that he gets himself mired in lengthy counterinsurgency operations. In that situation, he will have to mobilize the less-than-elite conscript and reservist units. When conscript sons and reservists called back to active duty start coming home in body bags, Putin’s days in the Kremlin will be numbered. Already, as Schindler points out, “Dead Russian paratroopers are coming home for burial.”
“If the West wants to prevent more Russian aggression and save Ukraine from further Kremlin depredations, it must offer Kyiv armaments, logistics, training, and above all intelligence support without delay. Nothing else will cause Moscow to back down. Only by arming and enabling Ukraine’s military can the West make the cost of Putin’s war prohibitive for Russia. Ukraine’s defense ministry and armed forces require major Western aid to transform its underperforming military from bad Soviet habits to real fighting capability, but that is a long-term enterprise. Right now, Kyiv needs direct military aid. If NATO does not provide it, a wider war for Ukraine becomes more likely by the day, with grave consequences for the European peace that NATO has preserved, at great expense, for sixty-five years.”
This proscription is absolutely right. The sooner the West takes a stand, the better it will be. As in the 1930’s, appeasement only postpones the problem, allowing it to metastasize into something bigger and more terrible. Right now, time is of the essence. If the Ukrainians are backed to the hilt with weapons and training, they will do all the heavy lifting for us. Not because they owe us, but because they have no choice. If we let the Ukraine fall, NATO will have to fight Putin directly – with all the strategic risk that portends.
Anybody but a strategic nincompoop (like Pat Buchanan and the Pauls –father and son) should be able to see that.
Sorry my friend, but you are beating a dead horse. The "West" hasn't the fortitude to take on Putin as you will see in the next few days as NATO Obama, and the EU back off and leave the Ukrainians on their own.
Oh Ukraine will still be a sovereign state of course, except it will do whatever the Russians tell them to do.(or not to do, like joining the EU, or NATO )
If you will recall, that's what pissed Putin off in the first place.
Posted by: Copinacus | September 04, 2014 at 05:32 PM