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March 25, 2015


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Interesting comparison, although I think the big thing that sunk Paul Martin and why Chretien did was performance vs. expectations. People never had high expectations of Chretien so it was easy to beat them. Heck I would argue the reason Harper has lasted as long as he had is people had extremely low expectations of him so it was hard to meet or beat them. By contrast people expected Paul Martin to be a big transformational leader to do all those great things and we he didn't his popularity plunged. Otherwise the expectations were unrealistically high that he was doomed to fail. One thing Chretien and Harper understood well is set people's expectations low if you want to stay in power for the long-run.

As for Hilary Clinton, I think she will win the nomination, but the challenge is more the general election. As long as the GOP doesn't go overboard in electing someone too extreme she could face a tough challenge. And never mind one of Barack Obama's keys to success was strong turnout amongst younger voters and minorities, both who heavily vote Democrat thus putting him over the top. Will Hilary Clinton be able to motivate them to show up in big numbers like Obama did?


Monkey, I'm going to agree and disagree. Yep, Hillary's issue will come in the election, probably not the primaries (barring more issues surfacing). I disagree in that I think the Republican's best bet is to go with a non-establishment candidate - meaning someone generally considered 'extreme' by the MSM. Jeb Bush will get crushed by Hillary, because he won't excite his base and they won't come out for him. Cruz/Jindal/Walker would excite the base and they will come out for any of those guys. Will they be attacked by the MSM? OF COURSE they will, but so will Jeb. Furthermore, as Cincinnatus has said many times, the 'Independents' respond to someone with principles, not someone wishy washy. Proof? EVERYBODY said that Reagan was 'unelectable' in the 70's. And the Independents LOVED him.
Love or hate him, Obama excited his base and stood for something, so he got some independents too. Wishy washy middle of the road won't get it done. The MSM will strongly support Bush because they know he will lose.


Monkey- What is your definition of "extreme"?

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