Donald Trump’s first big mistake

Donald Trump has run a flawless campaign - until now. Those who have derided him as a buffoon or a clown or a demagogue, do themselves a disservice by closing their minds to all of the lessons in retail politics that he is demonstrating.

If you actually want to know about them, read Scott Adams’ blog. Adams was selected Pundit of the Year by blogger Don Surber because Adams has consistently made successful predictions in this ‘bizarre and unpredictable’ presidential election cycle. (For instance, in August, while everybody assumed it was only a matter of time before Trump imploded, Adams predicted that Trump would win.) Adams has been successful in his prognostication because he hasn’t been dismissive of Trump’s campaigning skills. Instead, he explains how they work.

Having said that, I don’t think Trump’s success can solely be attributed to his skills on the stump. As I have pointed out before, Trump is winning because he has attached himself to three preexisting political currents: grass-roots opposition to immigration; hatred of the Washington establishment; and widespread public opposition to Political Correctness.

Therefore it comes as a surprise that Donald Trump has dissed Ted Cruz as somebody who can’t get along in Washington. He opined that he would make a better President that Cruz because he is willing to cut deals. This argument makes some sense but it is not what Republican voters want to hear. As they see it, the problem is not Washington “gridlock” nor is it Republican inability to “get along” with their Democrat counterparts, but rather it is that the Washington politicians (of both parties) come to too many mutually beneficial arrangements that screw regular Americans. The Gang of 8 Amnesty deal is the paradigmatic example, but so is the recent omnibus spending bill championed by Paul Ryan. In making this accusation against Cruz, Trump opened himself up to the charge that he is a pay-to-play Washington insider wannabe. Noted Democrat pollster Pat Caddell agrees with this assessment.

Ted Cruz has seized upon this misstep, but I fear not vigorously enough. He should be talking about nothing else. He has done a bit this but has not been nearly loud enough. With his every breath, he should proclaim Trump as just another corrupt pol. This could be a fatal mistake for Trump but only if the attacks are pressed home.

Fortunately for Trump, National Review has come to his rescue. Just when Trump’s anti-establishment credentials became tarnished, a magazine of high-church conservative intellectuals attacks him. From the perspective of the alienated conservative voter who feels that nobody important cares about him, the National Review special edition just confirms their gut instinct that Trump isn’t ‘one of the establishment’. After all, National Review is the same magazine that previously endorsed Mr. Romneycare. In any event, the average Republican primary voter doesn’t differentiate between professional conservative intellectuals and RNC insiders. They’re all the same to them.

Will Trump eventually win? As a Cruz-a-natic, I hope not. In spite of his mastery on the campaign trail, I don’t see Donald Trump as presidential material. And in spite of his grass-roots rhetoric, I believe he’s a pay-to-play guy. (How could he not be? He’s a New York City developer.) Unfortunately, I also don’t think this misstep will do him in. It simply isn’t being exploited vigorously enough. At this point, I think Cruz has a realistic chance for victory but it depends on the weaker candidates dropping out with most of their supporters drifting towards him rather than Trump. We shall see. I’m no Scott Adams, so I’m not making any predictions.

Comments

[Al in Cranbrook]

Looks to me like the Donald just crapped all over the closest thing he had to a friend in the MSM. Considering Fox's market share, that could easily turn out to be fatal.

That aside, I'm thinking there's a bigger issue at play here. This Trump vs. Cruz rumble is, IMHO, starting to wear thin. None of it makes the GOP look good with respect to the long haul, and the seriousness of the job at hand for the next POTUS.

The one positive and uniting force within the GOP, and whom is coming across as serious about all of it, is Rubio.

After these first couple primaries are history, the slate of wannabes for the Republican nomination is going to start thinning out pretty quick. And I just cannot imagine even one of them moving to either Trump or Cruz.

Rubio is another matter entirely. Intelligent, serious, youthful, well informed, relatively moderate, and charming way beyond any of the others.

There is room for him to come up the middle and win all the marbles.

Then he should take on Carly Fiorina, along with her plans for tax reform, as his running mate for VP.

I have little doubt that it is this combination that scares the hell out of Democrats...and it should. He's trash either Clinton or Sanders without breaking a sweat.

FWIW.

[Dalwhinnie]

I admire your writing. I wish there were of its quality on Blogging Tories. At Barrelstrength we have made a different political calculation about Trump. It would be interesting to continue to compare notes in a fraternal fashion. Best regards

[old white guy]

Trump is shaking things up, win or lose. America needs to be shaken up, the status quo is no longer acceptable. The total and complete BS that is an election campaign has to change. Trump is changing it for better or for worse.

[Cincinnatus]

Dear Old white guy:

I agree that things need to be shaken up in America, and Trump has done it. But that's why my feeling on Trump have been so conflicted. Balanced against your truth is my fear that he is just a common opportunist who will say anything.

Dear Dalwhinnie:

Thank's for the compliment! I will check out your site.

[WiseGuy]

I think that the conservative Trump supporters will not miss this mistake by Trump. We are in uncharted territory here, but the folks driving it all are not stupid. There is a good probability that their support for Trump will soften, and Cruz will benefit.
The shake up in the GOP has already happened, and nobody can unring that bell.

[Autoguy]

I think that Trump will continue to be strong. Mainly because he is on the right side of the biggest election issue in generations, and it wouldn't even be an issue without him. He had the balls to take on everybody and his brother on immigration (legal and illegal) when nobody else even wanted to talk about it. I really like Cruz, but even he was soft on legal immigration originally. So I see something different than most; Trump is saying what he feels, not what he thinks people want to hear. Evidence?
1. Immigration stance, for which he is reviled.
2. Support for a single payer health care system.
3. A seriously different take on Putin.

I'm not saying that these are great stances to take, but if Trump was 'mouthing platitudes' to the Conservative Base, he certainly wouldn't be saying that hodgepodge. The very stances he takes are almost proof that he is being honest because they don't fit the mold of any particular voter. AT ALL.
So I respect his candor. I respect his ability. I respect that fact that he owes NOBODY in politics (not even Ted Cruz can say that). He will win in a serious landslide. That is my prediction.